OTTAWA—Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz says he’s optimistic that the striking weaknesses in international trade are not signs of a looming global recession.
In prepared remarks of a New York speech today, Poloz says trade growth has once again slowed dramatically after rebounding from its collapse caused by the 2008 financial crisis.
But he says the slowdown in global exports does not signal impending trouble and is likely a result of the fact that big opportunities to boost global trade have already been largely exploited.
Poloz’s speech to Canadian and U.S. securities industry associations expresses confidence that most of the trade slump will be reversed as the global economy recovers, even if it’s a slow process.
He also says there’s still room to boost global trade through efficiency improvements to international supply chains, the signing of major treaties such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the creation of new companies.
Poloz says the most promising source of trade and productivity growth could be the post-crisis emergence of new firms, which has so far been sluggish in Canada.