World Bank: Global economy is healthy but growth will slow

WASHINGTON—The steadily expanding global economy should remain resilient—at least for a couple of years—the World Bank says.

The anti-poverty agency predicted Tuesday that global growth will decelerate from a solid 3.1 per cent this year to 3 per cent next year and 2.9 per cent in 2020.

The world economy is generally healthy but must contend with rising interest rates in wealthier countries and weaker demand for commodities in developing nations. It also faces risks from trade disputes, financial volatility and geopolitical tensions.

The World Bank predicts that U.S. growth will register 2.7 per cent in 2018, aided by tax cuts, before slowing to 2.5 per cent next year and 2 per cent in 2020. Likewise, the 19-country eurozone will go from 2.1 per cent this year to 1.7 per cent next and 1.5 per cent in 2020, the World Bank says.

China’s growth is projected at 6.5 per cent this year, 6.3 per cent in 2019 and 6.2 per cent in 2020. The world’s second-biggest economy, after the United States, is trying to manage a difficult transition from breakneck growth based on often-wasteful investment to slower, steadier growth built on spending by Chinese consumers.

The World Bank envisions a slump in global commodities prices. It foresees oil prices surging 32.6 per cent this year, then dropping 1.4 per cent in 2019. Excluding energy, commodity prices will grow 5.1 per cent this year but just 0.2 per cent in 2019, it predicts.