Canadian economy expected to see slow growth in 2025 Q3 and Q4, CFIB reports
October 27, 2025
by CM Staff
Oct. 27, 2025, Toronto — The Canadian economy is expected to see slow growth in Q3 and Q4 2025, finds the Canadian Federation of Independent Business’s (CFIB) latest Main Street Quarterly report.
CFIB’s estimates and forecasts in partnership with AppEco suggest the Canadian economy grew by 0.8 per cent in Q3 2025 and will continue growing at a slow pace of 0.2 per cent in Q4. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to remain stable for the rest of the year.
The national private sector job vacancy rate remained steady at 2.8 per cent in Q3 2025, representing 391,100 unfilled positions.
Amid ongoing uncertainty, private investment estimates point to a 3.7 per cent decline in Q3 and a further contraction of 4.5 per cent in Q4.
There was a special analysis this edition of the report focusing on the Buy Canadian movement. It found that over four in 10 (43 per cent) businesses ran buy-local campaigns, with almost two-thirds (61 per cent) reporting higher sales of Canadian products.
However, only 15 per cent saw increases in revenues and nine per cent saw a boost in profit due to high costs and soft demand.
Conclusions by Simon Gaudreault, CFIB’s chief economist and vice president of research, include a continued state of economic uncertainty for Canadian businesses, explaining why estimates and forecasts for the second half of 2025 show a weak GDP, retail sales, labour market and investment picture.
Despite unfavourable signals, however, Gaudreault added that small business owners are hoping for a better-than-expected final stretch for 2025 and a solid foundation to enter the new year, and that positive signals in the upcoming federal budget coupled with strong holiday sales could certainly help on that front.
