OTTAWA—Ontario’s exports are set to grow by 14 per cent this year and another nine per cent in 2012, according to a Global Export Forecast by Export Development Canada (EDC).
“Last year’s spectacular rebound in the auto sector will continue, with strong double-digit growth expected this year and next,” said Peter Hall, EDC’s chief economist. “Commodity exports will benefit from high prices this year, but the other sectors will struggle with the competitive pressures that accompany the high-flying loonie.”
He said Ontario’s manufacturing sector will get a much needed reprieve next year as the Canadian dollar falls back below parity.
The province’s export picture is led by three key sectors:
- Industrial goods—35 per cent of the province’s total exports;
- Motor Vehicles—34 per cent
- Machinery and equipment—14 per cent.
EDC forecasts Ontario exports of autos and auto parts will jump by 14 per cent this year and 15 per cent in 2012.
Vehicle sales in the U.S. are expected to increase through 2012 as consumers loosen their purse strings, employment conditions improve and business spending resumes. Growing demand will fuel production in both Canada and the U.S., benefiting both passenger auto and parts manufacturers.
Ontario’s machinery and equipment sector is forecast to increase by 8 per cent this year and a further 7 per cent in 2012, following a second consecutive year of decline in 2010. The rebound will be driven by improving corporate investment in the U.S., and an aggressive global investment outlook for agriculture and mining.
Sales of power-generating equipment will continue to be a small but growing industry led by Ontario’s Feed-in-Tariff incentives with substantial investment boosting capacity through 2012.
Exports of Ontario industrial goods will rebound by 20 per cent this year due to strong volume and prices, followed by a further 5 per cent gain next year.