China’s trade surplus rises as exports accelerate
by Associated Press
Cargo handling is back to normal, but economists warn the shock will be felt abroad for months.
China’s monthly trade surplus soared to a record $97.9 billion in June as export growth picked up after anti-virus controls that shut down Shanghai were lifted and shippers moved a backlog of cargo.
Exports rose 17.9% over a year ago to $331.2 billion, up from May’s 16.9% growth, customs data showed on Jul. 13. In a sign of Chinese economic weakness, imports rose just 1% to $233.3 billion, pushing up the trade surplus by 90% from a year ago.
Imports from Russia, mostly oil and gas, rose 56% over a year ago as Beijing took advantage of price cuts offered by the Kremlin after Washington and Europe suspended most of their own purchases to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.
China’s trade already was depressed by weak global demand before Shanghai, site of the world’s busiest port, and other cities shut down starting in late March. Cargo handling is back to normal, but economists warn the shock will be felt abroad for months.
“Exports rebounded strongly as shipping bottlenecks eased,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics in a report. “But we think this may be the last hurrah for China’s pandemic export boom before shipments drop back on cooling demand.”
Weak import demand reflects a slump in construction, a major customer for foreign iron ore and other raw materials, after the government launched a crackdown on debt that has chilled the vast real estate industry.
Forecasters have cut estimates for China’s economic growth to as low as 2% this year, well below the ruling Communist Party’s target of 5.5%.
China’s economy grew by a weak 4.8% over a year earlier in the quarter ending in March. That was an improvement over the 4% rate in the final three months of 2021.
Some believe it shrank in the quarter ending in June before beginning a gradual recovery. Surveys show that might be under way as manufacturing and service activity accelerates.
If that lasts, “the outlook for the second half of 2022 is for stronger imports,” Rajiv Biswas of S&P Global Market Intelligence said in a report.
Exports to the United States surged 19.3% over a year earlier to $56 billion despite lingering tariff hikes in a trade war over Beijing’s technology ambitions. Imports of American goods edged up 1.7% to $14.6 billion.
China’s politically volatile trade surplus with the United States widened by 26% from a year earlier to $41.4 billion. It was among irritants that prompted then-President Donald Trump to launch the trade fight and hike import taxes.