Eight-year rally since Great Recession propels Dow past 25,000 points
Wall Street's strong performance continues to confound skeptics as most economic indicators point toward further growth
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NEW YORK—The Dow Jones industrial average burst through the 25,000 point mark Jan. 4, just five weeks after its first close above 24,000.
The Dow passed five 1,000-point barriers in 2017 on its way to a 25 per cent gain for the year, as an eight-year rally since the Great Recession continued to confound skeptics.
Strong global economic growth and good prospects for higher company earnings have analysts predicting more gains, although the market may not stay as calm as it has been recently.
The Dow has made a rapid trip from 24,000 points on November 30, partly on enthusiasm over passage of the Republican-backed tax package, which could boost company profits this year with across-the-board cuts to corporate taxes.
“For a long while in 2017 I would say the biggest driver was excitement and anticipation over tax reform, but at a certain point I think there was a handover to global economic growth really helping to carry the stock market,” said Invesco Chief Global Markets Strategist Kristina Hooper.
Big gains in U.S. blue chip companies have powered the Dow’s relentless rise to new heights over the past year, including an 87 per cent gain in aerospace giant Boeing, a 70 per cent rise in construction equipment maker Caterpillar and a 49 per cent increase in Apple.
The Dow, which was founded in 1896 and is the oldest barometer of the U.S. stock market, has nearly quadrupled in value from its low during the financial crisis in early 2009. But the global economy and spending by people and businesses and governments were much slower to recover than stocks were.
“Instead of fiscal stimulus, we relied on monetary policy stimulus, which inflates asset prices as opposed to the overall economy,” Hooper said. Stocks have continued to climb as investors saw signs economic growth was finally improving.
Technology companies, which put up some of the biggest gains in the last year, continued to lead the market higher. And there was more good economic news Thursday: A report showed private U.S. businesses added 250,000 jobs last month, with smaller businesses adding 94,000.
The Dow, which tracks 30 big U.S. companies, rose 152.45 points, or 0.6 per cent, to 25,075.13.
The Standard & Poor’s 500, a much broader index that professional investors prefer to use as their benchmark for large U.S. stocks, rose 10.93 points, or 0.4 per cent, to 2,723.99.
The Nasdaq composite, which is heavily weighted with technology and biotech companies, added 12.38 points, or 0.2 per cent, to 7,077.91. All three indexes set record highs a day earlier.
The Nasdaq reached a milestone of its own this week, closing above 7,000 points for the first time Tuesday.
Indexes in some developing countries have done even better than those in Europe and the U.S. over the past year. Brazil’s benchmark Bovespa is up 28 per cent over the past year and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong is up 39 per cent.
Bond prices fell, sending yields higher. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.45 per cent from 2.44 per cent. Higher bond yields are good news for banks because they can charge higher interest rates on mortgages and other kinds of loans.
President Donald Trump said Thursday that the Dow could reach 30,000, which would take another 20-per cent jump. Few on Wall Street expect stocks to climb that much any time soon. Stocks already did far better than most observers expected last year, and corporate earnings aren’t rising fast enough to justify that kind of climb.