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Asia economic growth forecast to dip to 5.7 per cent over next two years

A report from the Asian Development Bank says India will remain one of the fastest-growing major economies, expanding by 7.4 per cent in 2016


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MANILA, Philippines—Softer growth prospects for China and a weak recovery in major industrial economies are expected to push down economic growth in developing Asia to 5.7 per cent in 2016 and 2017, below previous projections, according to an Asian Development Bank report. The region’s economy grew 5.9 per cent in 2015.

The Asian Development Outlook 2016 said China’s economic growth is seen moderating to 6.5 per cent this year from 6.9 per cent last year and to 6.3 per cent next year. Slower exports, a falling labour supply and supply-side reforms are reshaping the world’s second-largest economy toward more domestic consumption and a further reduction in excess industrial capacity, it said.

The report says India will remain one of the fastest-growing major economies, expanding by 7.4 per cent in 2016 and 7.8 per cent in 2017. Last year, India’s economy grew 7.6 per cent, with strong public investment boosting growth.

Southeast Asia’s economy is set for stronger growth at 4.5 per cent this year and 4.8 per cent next year, up from 4.4 per cent in 2015. The region will be led by its biggest economy, Indonesia, as it ramps up investment in infrastructure and implements policy reforms to spur private investment.

“(China’s) growth moderation and uneven global recovery are weighing down overall growth in Asia,” said Shang-Jin Wei, ADB’s chief economist. “Despite these pressures, the region will continue to contribute over 60 per cent of total global growth.”

He urged countries across Asia to implement reforms to boost productivity, invest in under-supplied infrastructure, and follow sound macroeconomic management to increase growth potential and insulate them from global instability.

Aggregate growth in the United States, the euro area and Japan will stay at 1.8 per cent in 2016 and inch up to 1.9 per cent in 2017, the report said.


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