DES MOINES, Iowa—Bird flu could cost nearly $1 billion in the economies of the two central states hardest hit, Minnesota and Iowa, agricultural economists said May 18, and the virus is still spreading.
Iowa, the leading U.S. egg producer, has lost about 20 million chickens that lay eggs for food use, more than a third of the total. Minnesota, the top turkey state has lost more than 8 million birds.
So far the U. S. Department of Agriculture has confirmed the bird flu has claimed nearly 37 million birds in 15 states but the number is significantly larger because additional farms in Iowa and Minnesota recently discovered are not yet on the list. The figures include birds killed by the virus as well as those killed to prevent its spread.
On Saturday, Rembrandt Foods announced that chickens at its second farm, an egg facility in Minnesota had tested positive for the virus. About 2 million chickens will be euthanized. The company, one of the largest egg producers in the U.S., had to destroy 5.5 million chickens on an Iowa farm after the flu turned up there last month.
“Avian Influenza is a challenge to not only the Rembrandt Foods’ business, but also its co-workers, customers, the communities in which it operates, and to the widespread industry as a whole,” Jonathan Spurway, a company spokesman, said in a statement.
Minnesota’s estimated loss of nearly $310 million in poultry production includes sales losses to feed suppliers, trucking companies, and processing plants, said Brigid Tuck, a senior economic impact analyst with the University of Minnesota in Mankato.
The loss in sales of poultry alone is estimated at $114 million. The estimates were based on the bird losses as of last Monday.
“If the virus affects more farms, as we have seen since May 11, the impact levels will rise,” Tuck said.
In Iowa, the estimated economic loss from egg production is estimated at just over $600 million based on figures from Iowa State University economists using current estimates of dead chickens. Egg producers generate more than $2 billion a year in economic activity and the estimate is based on a loss of a third of the flock. Additional losses were reported Monday.
Other agriculture economists believe the economic losses for those two states could be even higher.
The economists said that the estimates are based on annual figures and the exact economic impact won’t be known until it’s determined how long it takes to declare barns virus-free and safe for restocking after birds are cleared out and facilities are disinfected.
“They are not going to come back all at once. It’s going to take one to two years for these layer facilities to be back into full production, it’s a gradual process,” said Maro Ibarburu, a business analyst at the Egg Industry Center at Iowa State University.
While agriculture economists compute financial losses for states hardest hit, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released a monthly report Monday that said national exports of turkey meat will fall 10 per cent, eggs about 1.5 per cent and even chicken meat exports will fall 6.8 per cent this year.
The broiler chicken industry, which provides chickens for meat, has not been directly hit by the of the bird flu virus that has mainly infected turkeys and egg-laying hens, but the export impact is due to national bans of all U.S. poultry products imposed by China, Russia and South Korea.