Canadian Manufacturing

U.S. forecast to lead global growth in 2017, with Canada coming in second: IMF report

The International Monetary Fund's latest outlook for advanced economies as a whole has improved for the 2017-18, but Trump is a wild card that could have an unpredictable impact



WASHINGTON, Wash.—The International Monetary Fund says uncertainty surrounding the incoming Donald Trump administration in the United States is making it difficult to forecast how the global economy will perform this year.

But the Washington-based IMF says it estimates the Canadian economy will grow by 1.9 per cent in 2017 and 2.0 per cent in 2018. That compares with its previous estimate of 1.9 per cent growth in both years.

Canada is expected to have the second-fastest growth among the G7, ahead of the four European members and Japan.

The IMF estimates the United States will lead the G7, with its economy expanding by 2.3 per cent this year and 2.5 per cent next year—up from previous estimates of 2.2 per cent in 2017 and 2.1 per cent in 2018.

Its latest outlook for advanced economies as a whole has improved for the 2017-18 period, compared with its October estimates, due to somewhat stronger activity in the second half of 2016 and projected U.S. government stimulus.

But the IMF’s estimates for several large developing economies has been revised lower—notably India, Brazil and Mexico.

It estimates Mexico’s economy will grow about 1.7 per cent in 2017 and 2.0 per cent in 2018—down 0.6 of a percentage point in each year from its October outlook.

Mexico has been a frequent target of comments by President-elect Donald Trump, who has promised before and since the November election that the United States will build a wall between the two countries.

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