Canadian Manufacturing

TD cuts Q1 outlook for Canadian economy

The forecast falls well short of the 1.5 per cent pace the Bank of Canada has predicted for the first quarter



TORONTO—TD Bank trimmed its outlook for the Canadian economy as it predicted low oil prices will take a larger bite out of the first quarter, before the economy picks up in the second half of the year.

The bank cut its growth forecast for the first quarter to an annual pace of 0.5 per cent compared with its outlook in January when it predicted an annual pace of 1.0 per cent for the first three months of the year.

The forecast falls well short of the 1.5 per cent pace the Bank of Canada has predicted for the first quarter.

TD is also now estimating 1.9 per cent growth for this year, compared with its earlier forecast for 2.0 per cent.

Its forecast for 2016 is unchanged at 2.2 per cent growth.

The new estimate is based on a slightly higher average price for oil this year at US$49 per barrel compared with the January outlook which used an average price of US$47.

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