Canadian Manufacturing

Exporters, consumers push Canada out of recession, says Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada said that GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.3 per cent during the three-month period that ended in September



OTTAWA—Canada has climbed out of the recession that nudged the economy into reverse over the first half of 2015—but a rebound in growth during the third quarter has already shown signs of lost momentum.

Statistics Canada said Dec. 1 that gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.3 per cent during the three-month period that ended in September.

The GDP received boosts from improved performances in exports and household consumption, the federal agency said.

But the economy contracted by 0.5 per cent at a non-annualized rate in September—a decrease largely linked to the country’s hobbled manufacturing and natural resources sectors.

That September reading followed GDP growth at a non-annualized pace of 0.3 per cent in July and 0.1 per cent in August.

Earlier this year, the economy fell into the technical definition of a recession after it recoiled for two straight quarters. It decreased by a revised annual pace of 0.7 per cent over the first three months of 2015 and again by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter.

The overall third-quarter reading came in close to expectations. Economists had expected growth of 2.4 per cent for the third quarter, according to Thomson Reuters.

Statistics Canada said the economy registered 2.7 per cent growth in the exports of goods, led by increases in motor vehicles and parts as well as consumer goods and crude-oil bitumen.

Household spending, meanwhile, grew by 0.4 per cent in the third quarter, the agency said.

The economy’s struggles—led by the deep, negative impact of stubbornly low oil and commodity prices—have forced experts to repeatedly downgrade their growth forecasts for Canada.

Last month, the federal government’s fiscal and economic update contained average forecasts made in October by a group of private-sector economists. They predicted a 1.2 per cent increase in real GDP —a common measure of economic growth—for 2015 as a whole, down from an April estimate of two per cent.

In October, the Bank of Canada predicted the economy to expand by 2.5 per cent in the third quarter and 1.5 per cent in fourth.

The central bank has projected growth of 1.1 per cent for 2015 as a whole and two per cent for 2016.

The Bank of Canada, which cut its key interest rate twice this year to cushion the economy from the major drop in oil prices, is scheduled to make a rate announcement Wednesday. It is widely expected to hold its trend-setting rate at 0.5 per cent.

The weaker economic conditions have put pressure on the new Liberal government’s election promises, which include big-ticket spending for projects like infrastructure that it says will produce jobs and growth.

Even with billions in spending commitments, the Liberals committed to keep annual deficits under $10 billion over the next two years, generate a shortfall of only $5.7 billion in the third year and balance the books in time for the next election in 2019.

But the Liberals announced in their fiscal update last month that they inherited federal books from the Conservatives that will drive the country billions of dollars deeper in the hole than expected, raising doubts they will meet all their fiscal goals without changing some of their plans.

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