Global trade to rebound, emerging markets driving growth: HSBC

VANCOUVER—Global trade is projected to rebound in the next decade with India expected to become the world’s fastest-growing trade market, according to an HSBC forecast.

According to the HSBC Trade Forecast, powerhouses India and China will be joined by emerging nations Vietnam, Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, Mexico and Poland to record significant trade growth over the next three years.

As these economies industrialize, HSBC sees an increase in trade of higher value goods, reflecting the increased maturity of these faster-growing economies with large populations and rapidly growing middle-class consumer markets.

With Canada positioned as a major exporter of commodities and natural resources, HSBC executive vice-president Linda Seymour says the rapid industrialization of many Asian economies and demand for raw materials presents opportunities for Canadian companies doing business internationally.

“It is important that Canadian companies take advantage of these opportunities as trade activity between Canada and the United States slows due to softening US demand and the strong Canadian dollar,” Seymour said in a statement.

India trade growth a driving force to 2030

The Trade Forecast highlights India’s critical role in world trade growth, with the world’s second-most populous nation representing the fastest growing import or export partner for Canada.

HSBC credits an emerging middle class and growing consumer wealth for India’s projected trade growth.

Investment in infrastructure development, foreign direct investment (FDI) and its developing role as a supply chain hub for Asia are also driving its growth, the financial firm says.

According to HSBC, India is the fastest-growing source for Canada’s importers (82 per cent) and is expected to be so until 2020, followed by Malaysia (80 per cent), Vietnam (69 per cent), Mexico (64 per cent) and Turkey (51 per cent).