Export Development Canada forecasts strong Canadian and global export growth in 2017
OTTAWA—A handful of factors, including trouble in the oil and gas industry has led to a lackluster performance for Canadian exporters this year—but despite the stumble, Export Development Canada expects exporters to get back on their feet next year with stronger growth.
“Primary industries are still reacting to the plunge in commodity prices, but with prices now up from early-year lows, 2017 shipments should do better,” Peter Hall, chief economist at EDC, said. “Robust U.S. demand and a subdued Canadian dollar will continue to boost key manufactured products.”
In its latest forecast, EDC said it anticipates Canadian businesses will post three per cent export growth in 2017—just below the 3.4 per cent growth expected for the global economy. With energy prices recovering from their recent lows, the trade financier expects the oil and gas industry to lead the way, while the aerospace, fertilizers and consumer goods industries will also post “decent gains.” A recent bright spot in the Canadian economy, the service export industry, is also expected to record a five per cent 2017 gain.
Among large emerging markets, EDC forecasts India will lead the pack with 7.4 per cent export growth, followed by China at six per cent.